Sunday, January 6, 2008

A hand, with analysis

Warning: If you don't care about poker hands you don't need to read this post as it's pure analysis.

The hand: Four handed game, and I'm UTG (CO) and open Ks Jd. BB 3 bets and I call.

BB is a 56/40 player who is probably 3-betting 25% of his hands here. He is one of the reasons I am in the game.

Flop: 2c 9h 4s. He bets, I call
Turn: 8h. He bets, I fold.

Here is the analysis I just wrote to a friend of mine:

...his VPIP is 56%, PFR is 40% and I would guess he's 3-betting me from the BB with about 20% of his hands
66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

Against that range my flop equity is: 35.7% which makes my peel super easy. But his range won't change on that turn card either, he's betting it nearly 100% of the time there. So my equity there is 29.4% which again makes it an easy peel. This surprises me, I didn't think my equity would be nearly that high but it is. In fact, with the pot size I have correct effective odds to call turn and river in this spot. Again, I'm surprised. Specifically, the only really bad river cards for my hand on this board is a T or a Q which drop my equity to below 3% and 9% respectively. For all other cards I'm sitting here with 20+% equity on the river.

Of course, on the river he's not going to bet his entire range. I'm not really sure what he will bet. Definitely all pairs, and a few missed draws and probably AK, AQ for value (he will do this). So if his new range on the river is:
66+, AKs, A9s-A8s, A4s, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s+, T9s, AQo+, A9o, JTo

I have 13.7% on a blank (like a 5 or 2) and would need 12.5% getting 7:1. So again, it would be a call even he is a lot more selective on his river bets. Couple this with the fact that I will be getting a fair number of free showdowns and will get called a LOT when I hit my J or my K makes the turn call even better. Now, 7, T and Q's are bad, but everything else is still a call.

I find this hand instructive. Comments? Based on this work I think my turn fold is a decent sized mistake (small in magnitude, but decent in terms of relative mistakes).

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